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Aliko Dangote, chairman of the Dangote Group, predicted that the naira could strengthen to N1,100 per dollar by year-end if the government maintains policies restricting imports and supporting local manufacturing, a forecast that would represent the currency’s most significant appreciation in years if realized but that skeptics view as overly optimistic given structural challenges facing Nigeria’s economy.
Speaking during the launch of Nigeria’s National Industrial Policy in Abuja before Vice President Kashim Shettima and other dignitaries, Dangote said reforms implemented by President Bola Tinubu’s administration are beginning to yield results that manufacturers appreciate. “I mean, today, if you look at it, Your Excellency, I believe with the policies that you have implemented in government, people now have started seeing the result, and manufacturers are very, very happy,” he said, praising efforts to restrict imports and encourage domestic production. “Today, the dollar is N1,340. Mr Vice-President, I can assure you that, with what I know, by blocking all this importation, the currency this year will be as low as N1,100 if we are lucky,” Dangote continued, suggesting import restrictions would reduce dollar demand and support the naira’s recovery from years of sharp depreciation that accelerated after the Central Bank unified exchange rates in 2023.
He added a caveat that the government might resist allowing further appreciation because a weaker naira generates more naira-denominated revenue when converting dollar earnings from oil exports, creating what he called a “catch-22 situation” where fiscal interests conflict with currency stability.
The billionaire industrialist explained that while a stronger naira would lower import costs and reduce inflation pressures,”everything will go down,” Nigeria’s heavy dependence on imported goods means the economic benefits would flow primarily to foreign producers rather than domestic manufacturers. “Everything will go down because we are an import-based country, which we shouldn’t be,” he said. “What we should be doing is manufacturing all the things that we need.”
Dangote’s prediction echoes remarks by fellow billionaire Femi Otedola, who said earlier this year that the naira could trade below N1,000 per dollar before 2026 ends following the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reaching full production capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. Otedola described the refinery’s output as “transformational for Nigeria and Africa” and said its ability to supply up to 75 million liters of Premium Motor Spirit daily would fundamentally shift the country’s energy narrative while conserving foreign exchange previously spent importing refined petroleum products.
“I am optimistic that the naira will strengthen meaningfully, and trading below ₦1,000/$1 before year-end is increasingly within reach,” Otedola said in January, attributing his confidence partly to reduced fuel import costs that have historically consumed a significant portion of Nigeria’s dollar earnings.
The naira has recently strengthened from multi-year lows, trading around N1,354 per dollar at the official Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and between N1,430 and N1,440 on the parallel market Wednesday, its strongest levels in more than two years, according to currency dealers and financial data providers. The modest recovery follows the Central Bank of Nigeria’s implementation of tighter monetary policies including interest rate hikes that have attracted foreign portfolio investment seeking higher yields, though the gains remain fragile and susceptible to reversal if oil revenues decline or dollar demand spikes.
Read Also: Otedola Says Dangote Refinery Could Bring Naira Below ₦1,000/$1
Whether Dangote’s prediction of N1,100 per dollar proves accurate depends partly on sustained implementation of policies restricting imports, successful ramp-up of domestic refining capacity, improved oil production volumes that boost dollar inflows, and continued foreign investor confidence in Nigerian assets. Economists have expressed skepticism that such significant appreciation can occur absent fundamental improvements in productivity, infrastructure, and governance that address underlying weaknesses driving the naira’s long-term depreciation trend.
The currency traded as strong as N200 to N300 per dollar through much of the 2010s before collapsing amid multiple Central Bank interventions, subsidy regimes, and dual exchange rate systems that created arbitrage opportunities and depleted foreign reserves. It plunged below N1,000 per dollar after Tinubu’s administration removed fuel subsidies and unified exchange rates in 2023, reforms economists praised as necessary but that triggered immediate inflation surges and living cost increases that sparked public anger and labor strikes.
Dangote called Tuesday for stronger protections for local investors through targeted incentives and improved infrastructure, highlighting unreliable power supply as a persistent challenge undermining manufacturing competitiveness. “While the policy is in order, it must be backed with full protection for industrialists to drive the nation’s goal for industrialisation, job creation, and economic growth,” he said, referring to the newly launched industrial policy framework designed to boost domestic production and reduce import dependence.
Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has struggled for decades with challenges including inadequate electricity that forces factories to rely on expensive diesel generators, poor transportation networks that raise logistics costs, and policy inconsistencies that discourage long-term investment. Manufacturers have repeatedly called for stable regulatory environments, access to affordable credit, and trade protections against cheap imports that undercut local producers unable to match foreign economies of scale.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which began operations in 2024 after years of construction delays and cost overruns that pushed total investment above $20 billion, has gradually increased output toward its designed capacity. The facility can process various crude grades and produce gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and other petroleum products that previously required imports costing Nigeria billions of dollars annually in foreign exchange.
However, the refinery has faced challenges including disputes over crude oil supply arrangements with international oil companies operating in Nigeria, quality concerns about some product outputs, and pricing disagreements with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited that have complicated domestic distribution. Dangote has accused vested interests in the fuel import business of sabotaging his refinery to protect their profit margins, allegations government officials have not substantiated but that reflect broader suspicions about entrenched networks benefiting from Nigeria’s dysfunctional petroleum sector.
Nigerian equities have delivered strong returns despite currency volatility and economic uncertainty, with Bloomberg reporting that local stocks provided the world’s second-best dollar returns in 2025, climbing 31 percent and recovering $21 billion in market value lost after the naira’s sharp 2024 devaluation. Total market capitalization on the Nigerian Exchange now stands at approximately $84 billion, roughly 58 percent higher than before the currency’s collapse, reflecting both corporate earnings growth and technical factors including the mathematical effect of naira appreciation on dollar-denominated valuations.
Investors have gravitated toward Nigerian equities as inflation hedges and as Central Bank interest rate hikes made naira-denominated assets more attractive compared to alternatives in other emerging markets where returns failed to compensate for currency and political risks. Banks, consumer goods companies, and industrial conglomerates have particularly benefited as demand remained resilient despite economic headwinds and as some firms successfully passed higher costs to customers through price increases.
The industrial policy launched Tuesday outlines strategies for boosting manufacturing across priority sectors including agriculture, pharmaceuticals, textiles, automotive, and petrochemicals. Officials described it as providing a comprehensive framework for coordinating government interventions including tax incentives, subsidized credit programs, preferential procurement policies favoring local producers, and restrictions on imports competing with domestic manufacturers.
Critics have questioned whether the policy represents genuine reform or merely restates aspirations from previous unsuccessful industrialization drives that failed due to poor implementation, corruption, and lack of sustained political commitment. Nigeria has attempted multiple industrial development programs since independence in 1960, with limited success beyond isolated examples like the Dangote Group itself, which has built Africa’s largest cement production capacity and diversified into sugar, salt, flour, and now petroleum refining.
Read Also: NMDPRA: Dangote’s 40m Daily Liters Push Fuel Supply Up 25%
Trade Minister Doris Uzoka-Anite told the policy launch that reducing import dependence would require both supply-side interventions supporting producers and demand-side measures including public awareness campaigns encouraging consumers to “buy Nigerian.” She acknowledged that domestic products sometimes lag foreign alternatives in quality or price but said patriotic consumption was necessary to give local manufacturers scale and time to improve competitiveness.
Whether Nigerian consumers will embrace such appeals when imported goods remain cheaper or higher quality represents a significant implementation challenge, particularly given the country’s deep poverty and the reality that many households prioritize affordability over supporting domestic industry. Previous “made in Nigeria” campaigns generated limited traction as consumers voted with their wallets for products offering better value regardless of origin.
Dangote’s prediction that the naira could reach N1,100 per dollar will be tested in coming months as markets assess whether current gains represent sustainable recovery or temporary fluctuation vulnerable to reversal if oil prices decline, import demand resurges, or investors lose confidence in government policies. The currency’s trajectory will significantly influence inflation, purchasing power, debt servicing costs, and political stability as Nigerians struggling with high living expenses watch whether reforms deliver promised prosperity or merely shift who benefits from economic dysfunction.
