The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority reported the refinery averaged 40.1 million liters of Premium Motor Spirit per day during January, up roughly eight million liters from December’s 32 million liters. Imports continued alongside domestic production to meet national demand.

Nigeria’s domestic supply benchmark sits at 75 million liters daily. Average consumption in January reached 60.2 million liters per day, with the Dangote facility now covering more than half that volume.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and other marketers imported an average of 24.8 million liters daily during the period. Total PMS supply into the domestic market averaged 64.9 million liters per day.

The authority calculates consumption based on volumes trucked into the domestic market, using that metric to measure distribution effectiveness.

Dangote Petroleum Refinery, situated in Lagos’s Lekki Free Zone, operates as a 650,000 barrels-per-day single-train facility—the world’s largest configuration of that type. The company has described reaching full designed capacity as a historic milestone, claiming it represents the first refinery globally to achieve complete nameplate capacity in a single train at that scale.

The complex has undergone phased expansion since commissioning as part of efforts to reduce Nigeria’s reliance on imported petrol. In December, refinery management projected output could reach 50 million liters daily between that month and January.

Management has optimized the Crude Distillation Unit and Motor Spirit production block to stabilize operations at steady-state levels. A 72-hour performance test is underway with technology licensor UOP to validate operational efficiency and confirm compliance with international standards.

The capacity gains are viewed as significant for Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, which has struggled for decades with chronic fuel shortages despite the country’s status as a major crude oil producer.

Billionaire investor Femi Otedola recently suggested the naira could strengthen below N1,000 per dollar before year-end, attributing the potential appreciation partly to reduced import demand stemming from the refinery’s operational progress.

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Nigeria has historically imported most of its refined petroleum products even as it exports crude oil, creating a drain on foreign exchange reserves and leaving the economy vulnerable to global price fluctuations and supply disruptions.

The Dangote facility’s increasing output represents the first substantial domestic refining capacity to come online in years. State-owned refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna have operated far below capacity or remained shut for extended periods due to maintenance issues and underinvestment.

The regulatory authority previously reported that Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption surged to 63.7 million liters in December 2025, reflecting demand patterns that have strained import infrastructure and contributed to periodic fuel scarcity.

January’s production figures indicate the country is moving toward targets for domestic supply that would diminish dependence on imported refined products. However, the gap between the 75-million-liter benchmark and current combined output from domestic production and imports suggests Nigeria has not yet achieved full supply adequacy.

The refinery’s ramp-up comes as fuel prices have remained elevated following subsidy removal, a policy shift that sparked widespread public opposition but which government officials argue was necessary to reduce fiscal strain and attract private investment in the energy sector.

Industry observers have monitored the Dangote facility’s progress closely given its potential to reshape Nigeria’s petroleum landscape. The project faced multiple delays before beginning operations, with construction costs reportedly exceeding initial estimates.

Read also: Otedola Says Dangote Refinery Could Bring Naira Below ₦1,000/$1

The complex processes crude oil into various products including diesel, aviation fuel and naphtha in addition to petrol. Management has indicated plans to expand product offerings and optimize yields across different refined products based on market demand.

Nigeria’s petroleum regulatory framework underwent restructuring in recent years with the establishment of separate authorities for upstream and midstream-downstream operations. The NMDPRA oversees refining, storage, distribution and retail activities.

Whether the Dangote refinery can sustain current output levels while further increasing production to meet the full domestic benchmark remains to be seen. Technical challenges, crude supply logistics and market dynamics will influence the facility’s ability to achieve and maintain maximum capacity over extended periods.

The January data represents a snapshot of operations during the refinery’s continued scaling phase rather than evidence of sustained long-term performance at peak capacity.