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Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s Premium Motor Spirit gantry price has risen above the landing cost of imported petrol for the first time since the $20 billion facility began full commercial production, data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria released on March 2 showed, a reversal that has exposed the limits of the Naira-for-Crude deal intended to insulate Nigeria’s domestic refining sector from global price shocks, and that has sent retail pump prices above N960 per litre in Abuja and across the North-Central states.
MEMAN data indicated that Dangote’s petrol gantry price stood at N874 per litre as of Monday, while the landing cost of imported petrol stood at N809.37 per litre — a difference of approximately N64 per litre, making imported fuel cheaper than domestic refinery output for the first time since the deregulation framework brought Dangote into full price competition with the import trade. The price inversion arrived despite the Dangote refinery receiving federally supplied crude from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited under terms settled in naira — an arrangement the federal government designed specifically to shield domestic output from dollar-denominated crude price volatility.
Dangote Petroleum Refinery increased its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit to N874 per litre from N774 on Monday — a N100 increment the refinery attributed directly to the surge in international crude oil prices triggered by the US-Israel-Iran conflict. The move came as Brent and WTI crude blends rose to $78.50 and $71.84 per barrel respectively, up from $72.87 and $67.02 on Saturday — a two-day spike driven by market fears about prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption and production cuts in Iraq and Qatar. The price hike followed the refinery’s suspension of petrol loading operations effective midnight on March 2, after international crude prices surged past $80 per barrel overnight. PMS loading and issuance of proforma invoices were halted, though diesel loading continued uninterrupted.
The refinery said it had absorbed a portion of the pass-through: “The refinery implemented a measured adjustment of N100 per litre in its ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit, representing an increase of about 12 per cent. The refinery has absorbed 20 per cent of the cost escalation, for now, to cushion the domestic market.”
The statement implied that 80 per cent of the crude cost surge was transmitted directly to offtakers and, by extension, to motorists. The refinery also addressed the question of crude supply structure directly, confirming that the Naira-for-Crude deal provides only partial feedstock cover. “While we receive about five cargoes a month from NNPC, which we pay for in naira, these cargoes are priced at international market prices plus a premium and fall short of the 13 cargoes that we require to support sales into Nigeria,” the refinery stated.
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The remaining eight cargoes per month are sourced through export markets priced in dollars, meaning the majority of the refinery’s feedstock is fully exposed to global crude price movements regardless of the naira settlement mechanism on the minority NNPCL tranche.
MEMAN warned that the downstream sector was in a state of high uncertainty. “With Brent crude climbing above $80 per barrel due to escalating geopolitical tensions — specifically the US-Israel-Iran conflict — analysts warn that the cost of petrol remains under significant pressure. If crude prices continue toward the $90 per barrel mark, domestic pump prices could potentially reach N1,100 by next month,” MEMAN said.
The NMDPRA’s State of the Downstream Sector report for January 2026 showed that Dangote outpaced importers to supply approximately 62 per cent of the nation’s petrol in January — the first time in the 13-month period covered by the report that domestic production had exceeded imports. Total average daily supply reached 64.9 million litres, of which 40.1 million litres came from Dangote against 24.8 million litres from oil marketing companies and NNPCL imports. That market share milestone, achieved only weeks before the Middle East conflict erupted, now looks more fragile than the headline figure suggested, given the refinery’s feedstock exposure.
The refinery’s move triggered a ripple effect across Nigeria’s downstream sector, with several private depot owners halting petrol sales during the trading day to recalibrate replacement costs.
Filling stations in Abuja and neighbouring Nasarawa, Kogi, and Niger states subsequently raised retail prices to between N960 and N980 per litre, up from between N855 and N899 before the hike. MRS Holdings, the filling station brand with which Dangote has a commercial partnership, set its pump price at N975 per litre — N15 above NNPCL, AA Rano, Ranoil, and most other retail networks, which dispensed at N960. The premium at MRS, typically among the first to reflect Dangote’s gantry adjustments given the commercial relationship, effectively established the ceiling of the current retail price band.
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Dangote Refinery responded sharply to the MEMAN data, rejecting what it described as misleading comparisons designed to rehabilitate the import trade. The refinery challenged importers to source and deliver petroleum products amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruption, arguing that the price comparison was theoretical rather than operational under current global shipping conditions. “Some importers are propagating false narratives to maintain reliance on imports,” a refinery official said, without naming any party specifically. The refinery’s point was operationally substantive: the conflict in the Middle East has led to the shutdown of several international supply routes, and the availability of the cheaper imported product at N809.37 per litre reflected a pre-conflict cargo cost rather than what a new import would cost to source and land today.
The broader structural argument the refinery has consistently made is that the Naira-for-Crude deal, as currently implemented, provides insufficient crude volume at a price that is not actually discounted — NNPCL’s five monthly cargoes arrive at international market prices plus a premium — making the deal a currency settlement arrangement rather than a feedstock subsidy.
The eight cargoes the refinery sources independently on export markets are priced at international dollar rates, which rose approximately 20 per cent between the week before the Iran strikes and Monday’s hike. The refinery said it absorbed the equivalent of one-fifth of that increase before passing the remainder through its gantry price.
Whether the price inversion between domestic refinery output and imported product will persist depends on two variables moving in opposite directions: the trajectory of global crude prices, which will rise further if the Hormuz closure extends, and the availability of imported product, which becomes progressively more constrained as the conflict disrupts Middle East export routes.
