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Motorists across Nigeria absorbed another round of price increases Saturday as fuel retailers raised pump rates above 1,000 naira per liter, passing along costs tied to crude oil that has climbed past $100 per barrel amid fighting between the United States and Iran.
Premium motor spirit, known locally as petrol, sold for 1,040 naira in Lagos and 1,080 naira in Abuja at stations operated by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company and independent retailers.
The increases followed Dangote Refinery’s decision to raise its ex-gantry price to 995 naira, up from previous levels that had held steady for weeks.
Industry experts warned that prices could climb further if the conflict persists or expands, with some projecting crude could reach $130 per barrel if disruptions to Gulf shipments intensify.
That would push fuel costs well beyond what many Nigerians can afford, threatening transportation networks and business operations that depend on reliable access to diesel and petrol.
“We do not see the war ending soon,” said Olajide Jeremiah, chief executive of petroleum.ng. “The two major parties are still talking tough. They are also major players in the global oil business. Also, the escalation of the war to other areas, resulting in the destruction of major oil and gas installations, means that operations have been affected.”
Colman Obasi, national president of the Oil and Gas Services Providers Association of Nigeria, echoed that assessment. “At OGSPAN, we do not think the war will end soon. There is currently no sign to that effect. The prolonged conflict will continue to drive speculation and push oil prices higher.”
JPMorgan Chase projected Brent crude could hit $120 per barrel if a full-scale Middle East conflict produces sustained disruption of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments. Iran has blockaded the waterway and fired on vessels attempting to pass, effectively shutting down traffic and stranding thousands of ships in ports across the Gulf.
Crude prices have surged from roughly $85 per barrel before the fighting began to levels above $100, a jump that has rippled through global fuel markets and hit import-dependent countries like Nigeria especially hard.
The country produces oil but lacks sufficient refining capacity to meet domestic demand, forcing it to purchase finished products on international markets where prices track crude movements closely.
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Friday’s initial spike saw some retailers charging 1,100 naira per liter before prices settled slightly lower. Checks by Vanguard showed petrol selling for 1,040 naira at NNPC stations, representing an increase of 47 naira from the previous 993 naira rate.
Emadeb Energy and PM Petroleum matched that price in Lagos, while Empire Energy in Abuja charged 1,080 naira.
The increases come at a difficult time for Nigerian consumers already grappling with inflation that has eroded purchasing power and forced many to cut back on transportation and other expenses. Fuel costs feed into prices for food, goods and services across the economy, meaning the pump rate increases will compound broader cost-of-living pressures.
Dangote Refinery’s role as a price setter has drawn attention since the facility began operations last year.
As the country’s largest refinery, its pricing decisions influence what independent marketers charge and set benchmarks for import parity calculations used to determine whether bringing in foreign fuel makes economic sense.
Read more: Iran Fires Kheibar Missiles At Tel Aviv As Beirut Burns
The refinery raised its ex-gantry price to 995 naira Thursday, citing higher crude costs and operational expenses. That increase pushed retailers to adjust their own rates to maintain margins, with the final pump prices reflecting both the Dangote hike and additional distribution costs.
Whether the Nigerian government will intervene to cap prices or subsidize fuel remains unclear. Authorities removed subsidies last year as part of economic reforms aimed at reducing fiscal burdens and allowing market forces to determine pricing. But public pressure could force a reversal if costs climb to levels that trigger widespread protests or transportation shutdowns.
Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector has experienced repeated cycles of instability tied to global oil price swings, supply disruptions and policy changes. The current surge represents the sharpest increase in months and has caught many by surprise given that crude had been trading in a relatively stable range before the US-Iran conflict erupted.
How long prices will remain elevated depends largely on whether the fighting subsides or escalates. If Iran and the United States reach some accommodation that allows Hormuz to reopen and Gulf production to resume, crude could retreat toward pre-conflict levels. But if the war drags on or expands to include additional countries, prices could climb further and stay high for extended periods.
The government has urged patience and promised to monitor markets for price gouging, but it has offered little in terms of concrete measures to shield consumers from the increases.
That leaves millions of Nigerians navigating a fuel market shaped by forces far beyond their control, with their economic well-being tied to decisions made in Washington, Tehran and oil trading centers around the world.
