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The continued detention of Nnamdi Kanu, leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), is a matter that goes beyond the legalities of arrest and prosecution; it has far-reaching consequences for Nigeria’s socio-political and economic strata. As Nigeria stands on the precipice of severe socio-economic instability, the unconditional release of Nnamdi Kanu is not only a legal necessity but a critical imperative for maintaining peace, unity, and economic stability. With the country’s history of ethnic tensions, human rights violations, and economic struggles, the failure to release Kanu unconditionally will exacerbate existing problems and plunge the country into even deeper crisis.
Ethnic Tensions and Risk of Increased Violence
Nigeria is a country composed of over 250 ethnic groups, with deep-rooted ethnic and religious divisions. The South-East, where Kanu’s agitation for Biafra is most prominent, has long felt marginalized in the Nigerian federation. The continued detention of Kanu fuels feelings of disenfranchisement, not only among pro-Biafra supporters but also among the wider Igbo ethnic group.
According to reports by Amnesty International, the Nigerian military has committed widespread human rights abuses in its crackdown on IPOB supporters. In their 2022 report, Amnesty International documented extrajudicial killings, arbitrary arrests, and torture of IPOB members and sympathizers. These actions are not only illegal under international law, but they also stoke resentment and anger in the South-East. With growing discontent and an emboldened IPOB, the continued detention of Kanu could trigger an escalation in violence, potentially leading to a full-scale conflict between secessionist groups and the Nigerian government.
The risk of insurgency and civil unrest looms large. The Boko Haram insurgency in the North-East has already claimed over 350,000 lives since 2009, according to United Nations estimates. The introduction of another armed conflict in the South-East could tear the country apart, leading to widespread instability across multiple regions. Should the Kanu issue remain unresolved, the cost to human life, infrastructure, and social cohesion could be incalculable.
Read also: Kanu Not Convicted, Doesn’t Need Pardon – Ejimakor To Ohanaeze
Economic Instability and Disruption of Commerce
Nigeria’s economy is already on a fragile footing, with inflation standing at 32.15% in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Unemployment, particularly youth unemployment, is also at crisis levels, with an estimated 33.3% of the workforce without jobs. The World Bank has warned that Nigeria is facing its worst economic crisis in 40 years, with millions of Nigerians falling below the poverty line each year. In such a precarious situation, the last thing the country can afford is the economic disruption that would arise from a full-scale conflict in the South-East.
The South-East region of Nigeria is a key player in the country’s commerce and trade. Cities like Aba and Onitsha are renowned for their thriving commercial sectors, contributing significantly to Nigeria’s GDP. According to a report by PwC Nigeria, the South-East contributes approximately 20% to Nigeria’s non-oil GDP. Should unrest spread in the region as a result of Kanu’s continued detention, businesses and trade routes will be disrupted. The consequence would be catastrophic not only for the region but for the Nigerian economy at large.
Furthermore, the heightened insecurity would deter both local and international investors, further crippling economic growth. Nigeria has already seen a reduction in foreign direct investment (FDI), with the Central Bank of Nigeria reporting a 48.6% drop in FDI between 2019 and 2023. Political instability in the South-East would only accelerate this decline, leading to capital flight and loss of investor confidence.
Human Rights Violations and International Scrutiny
Kanu’s continued detention without trial, despite various court orders for his release, constitutes a blatant violation of his human rights under both Nigerian and international law. The Nigerian Constitution guarantees every citizen the right to a fair trial and protection from unlawful detention. Internationally, Nigeria is a signatory to the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights, which guarantees similar protections.
Human rights organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have repeatedly condemned the Nigerian government’s treatment of Kanu and IPOB members, urging the government to respect its legal obligations. Failure to release Kanu will lead to further international scrutiny, damaging Nigeria’s reputation on the global stage. With the African Union, European Union, and United Nations paying closer attention to human rights violations in Nigeria, the country risks sanctions and loss of foreign aid if it continues to violate international human rights norms.
Additionally, Nigeria’s failure to adhere to court orders sets a dangerous precedent for the rule of law. If the judiciary’s decisions are not respected, it undermines the very foundations of Nigeria’s democracy. Citizens lose faith in the legal system, and the country risks descending into a state of lawlessness. This erosion of legal credibility will further weaken Nigeria’s already strained political institutions and embolden other secessionist movements and extremist groups across the country.
The Need for Dialogue and Reconciliation
At this critical juncture, the only way forward is dialogue and reconciliation. The continued incarceration of Kanu serves no purpose other than deepening ethnic divisions and fueling unrest. His release must be accompanied by a renewed commitment to addressing the legitimate grievances of the South-East, including issues of marginalization, underrepresentation, and economic disenfranchisement.
In 2017, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar advocated for restructuring as a way to address the country’s growing ethnic tensions. His proposals called for more autonomy for Nigeria’s federating units, which would enable regions like the South-East to have greater control over their resources and governance. The implementation of such a restructuring plan, coupled with Kanu’s release, could pave the way for meaningful national reconciliation.
Moreover, political will is essential. President Bola Tinubu’s administration has the unique opportunity to step in and broker peace, showing that Nigeria’s leadership can prioritize the country’s stability over political expediency. Tinubu’s silence on the matter, however, only adds to the tensions. His administration must demonstrate a genuine commitment to national unity by fostering dialogue between the federal government and South-East leaders, alongside the unconditional release of Kanu.
Conclusion: A Call for Urgency
The stakes are high for Nigeria. Failing to release Nnamdi Kanu unconditionally could push the country into deeper ethnic divisions, prolonged violence, economic collapse, and further erosion of human rights. Nigeria is already at a critical juncture, with systemic challenges in governance, security, and the economy. Continuing the current trajectory, where political expediency is prioritized over justice and human rights, will only exacerbate these issues.
Nigeria’s leadership must act now, not only to secure the release of Nnamdi Kanu but also to address the larger issues of inequality and marginalization that have long festered in the South-East. The consequences of inaction will be catastrophic—not just for the region, but for the entire nation.
The time for peace, justice, and meaningful reform is now. Nigeria cannot afford another day of uncertainty. The world is watching, and the country’s future depends on the boldness of its leaders to act with justice and integrity.
