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The sad reality is that Mr Peter Obi’s ascension to the presidency is not feasible given Nigeria’s current political framework, and it is sad that Southerners who are pushing for him on social media have yet to realise that the bulk of Northerners who will decide his fate are not on social media.
Nobody in the Labour Party has a formidable political influence in the North that can deliver any state to Obi, as far as Nigerians are aware.
Similar to the West. Ondo State was the former center of the Labour Party. The current governor of Ondo State, Aketi, is APC and entirely controls the state’s political system as well as almost the entire South West . He is a political protégé or ally of Jagaban; therefore, please explain how the Labour Party may conceivably cruise to victory in the North and South West?
Obi has the potential to win at least two states in the East, but he will likely lose Abia because Ikpeazu will ensure that the PDP wins; he will win Anambra and Imo but lose Ebonyi and Enugu.
In Edo and Rivers, he will be defeated by the PDP.
In Cross River, he will also lose.
In Akwa Ibom, Obi does not stand a chance. In actuality, he will struggle to win any South South state.
Ignore the social media buzz, which consists of 10 to 15 million active Nigerian youngsters from the South praising him. Apart from this social media mirage and delusion, Obi has no chance of even coming in third place.
He will fail for the following reasons:
1. Those he is facing in the political arena are far superior to him in terms of political strategy and influence. Tinubu is the best strategist and most ruthless of them all, and he can equal Atiku dollar for dollar, even in the billions.
Though Tinubu is currently suffering from amnesia, probably from old age or due to his reckless living in his heydays, do not discount the fact that he surrounds himself with the brightest minds in the country and frequently employs the likes of David Axelrod to deliver for him, as he did for Buhari in 2015.
2. The political system is stacked against Obi; the North would always favour a Northern candidate such as Atiku or Kwankwaso unless Tinubu or Obi establish a formidable alliance with the incumbent President and his Northern team who will then use their fiat to garner huge Northern votes for them.
3. Obi is not really a generous individual, so he can’t possibly be giving as much as paymasters such as Atiku and Tinubu, who have teeming supporters in nearly every state of Nigeria due to their frequent way of throwing around money.
With Tinubu’s emergence as the APC flag bearer, he will undoubtedly win the election, but the MKO’s treatment most likely awaits him, which has a propensity to be administered by the following united forces:
1. Atiku Abubakar for his logger-ahead with Tinubu
2. Rabiu Kwankwaso to ascertain that power returns to the North.
3. Rochas Okorocha, to ensure that he is shortchanged since he lost out.
4. Yemi Osinbajo, who has already betrayed him by contesting the Primaries.
5. Chris Ngige. Perhaps you need to watch the hearing for more than a year where one of Tinubu’s stooges who happens to be a lawmaker was charged with Ngige, and he lost his cool and uttered deep words that were obviously indicating that he knew that Tinubu was after him.
Now for the following are the way out for the South East:
1. Insist on a restructuring that will result in a rotating presidency.
2. The rotational presidency will include two vice presidents, one from the north and one from the south; one will be the political vice president and the other the administrative vice president. Moreover, they must be experienced technocrats.
3. Finally, Ndigbo should refrain from voting until there is restructuring, or they should create a strong coalition with Northern Nigeria.
Your PVC is useless without RESTRUCTURING of Nigeria.