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China announced on Friday that its population had experienced a decline for the third straight year in 2024, bringing an end to a decades-long period of growth. This ongoing drop highlights the nation’s struggle with a fast-ageing population and persistently low birth rates, both of which threaten to reshape its future.
After more than six decades of expansion, this demographic shift is sparking concerns about the economic and social challenges that lie ahead, as China faces the reality of an ageing workforce and fewer younger people to sustain its economy.
After holding the title of the world’s most populous country for centuries, China was overtaken by India in 2023, highlighting a significant demographic transition. In an effort to reverse the decline in birth rates, Beijing has rolled out a series of initiatives, including subsidies and pro-fertility messaging, to encourage larger families.
However, these efforts face the challenge of combating a cultural and economic environment that has long been unfriendly to raising children, leaving the future of China’s population growth in a precarious state.
By the close of the year, China’s population had dwindled to 1.408 billion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing. This represents a slight decrease from 2023’s figure of 1.410 billion, further underscoring the ongoing trend of demographic contraction that has gripped the nation.
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The decline in 2024, though still notable, was less pronounced than the previous year’s, when the drop was more than double the reduction seen in 2022, the data revealed. This suggests that while the population continues to fall, the rate of decline may be slowing, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the ongoing demographic challenges.
China ended its strict “one-child policy”, imposed in the 1980s over overpopulation fears, in 2016 and started letting couples have three children in 2021.
But that has failed to reverse the demographic decline for a country that has long relied on its vast workforce as a driver of economic growth.
Many say falling birth rates are due to the soaring cost of living, as well as the growing number of women going into the workforce and seeking higher education.
People over 60 are expected to make up nearly a third of China’s population by 2035, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, a research group.
And data released Friday showed that the population aged 60 and over reached 310.31 million — just a few percentage points short of a quarter of the country and an increase from the nearly 297 million recorded in 2023.
But the data also showed China’s birth rate — among the lowest in the world — ticked up slightly from the previous year to 6.77 per 1,000 people.
In September, officials said they would gradually raise the statutory retirement age, which was set at 60 and among the lowest in the world. It had not been raised for decades.
The rules took effect from January 1.
China’s previous retirement age was set at a time of widespread scarcity and impoverishment, well before market reforms brought comparative wealth and rapid improvements in nutrition, health and living conditions.
But in recent years, the world’s second-largest economy has had to contend with slowing growth, while a fast-greying population and a baby bust have piled pressure onto its pension and public health systems.