|
Listen to article
|
As the countdown to Donald Trump’s reentry into the White House narrows to just two months, significant developments have emerged on the geopolitical stage. The Biden administration and Russian authorities, acting independently but with strategic intent, have implemented measures that they hope will shift the balance in the protracted war in Ukraine, signaling renewed urgency on both sides.
It seems as though Moscow is actively working to consolidate its advantages, seizing opportunities to maximize its influence on the war’s progression.
Meanwhile, President Biden’s decisions signal a departure from his previously firm stances, as he redefines long-established red lines in anticipation of Trump’s assertion to bring the war to a swift conclusion—perhaps in just a matter of hours, if he returns to office.
Responding to the green light from President Biden, Ukraine has launched its first long-range Atacms missiles into Russian territory, signaling a new phase in the conflict.
As Kyiv grapples with the ongoing struggle to maintain its territorial integrity in the east, Biden has committed to sending anti-personnel landmines as part of a significant new military aid package worth nearly $300 million (£239 million).
The catalyst behind Biden’s change of stance seems to be the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to the front lines, a maneuver that the United States has classified as a major and alarming escalation in the war.
In a further escalation of the already fraught situation, Russian President Vladimir Putin has intensified tensions by relaxing the constraints surrounding the use of Russia’s nuclear arsenal. Moscow now claims that this shift “effectively removes any possibility of defeat” on the battlefield, signaling a dire new phase in the conflict.
One Russia commentator suggested Putin might view the current situation as an “in-between” moment that gives him the sense he has the upper hand in Ukraine.
At the start of this week, Russia launched its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine for almost three months. Amid fears of a renewed strike on Wednesday, several Western embassies closed their doors.
Read also: Ukraine Fires First US-Supplied Long-Range Missiles Into Russia
“It’s all connected,” says Mykhaylo Samus, head of the New Geopolitics Research Network in Ukraine. He argues Russia has been stockpiling hundreds of Iskander and Kinzhal missiles for weeks to enable it to carry out strikes and thus send a psychological message ahead of the transfer of power in Washington DC.
Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, may have been spared on Wednesday, but the message got through.
“Everything is about preparing for a strong position for talks with Trump, to understand Russia is not going to make compromise and everything depends on [Ukraine’s President Volodymyr] Zelensky.”
Jade McGlynn, an expert from the War Studies Department at King’s College London, concurs, noting that there is clearly a concerted effort by Moscow to bolster its position ahead of Donald Trump’s anticipated return. She remains deeply skeptical about the possibility of a deal with Putin, emphasizing that, in her view, his ultimate objective is to bring Russia’s southwestern neighbor under his control.
